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Cremonese vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
11/5/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 12Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Cremonese45%
×Draw27%
Spezia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.38
Spezia
1.01

Cremonese creates 37% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 98 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.39
Spezia
1.12

allows per match

Cremonese
0.89
Spezia
1.36

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
72%
Cremonese or Spezia
73%
Draw or Spezia
55%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
22%
Spezia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
75%
Cremonese 2+ goals
40%
Cremonese 3+ goals
16%
Spezia 1+ goals
64%
Spezia 2+ goals
27%
Spezia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
62%
Spezia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Spezia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Spezia attack 1.12 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cremonese scores more
45%
level
27%
Spezia scores more
28%

Cremonese at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cremonese vs Spezia

Cremonese beat Spezia 3-0 in Serie B on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.