Cremonese 2–0 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cremonese

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Spezia

J. Vásquez 77'

D. Ciofani 41'

5/6/2023

Serie A · Round 34Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cremonese34%

×Draw26%

Spezia39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CremoneseExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.35

Cremonese

1.25

Spezia

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

1.15

creates per match

1.29

1.41

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Cremonese

1.15

Spezia

1.29

allows per match

Cremonese

1.41

Spezia

1.34

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Cremonese-0.19scores less

Spezia-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw

61%

Cremonese or Spezia

74%

Draw or Spezia

66%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+

15%

Spezia wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals

71%

Cremonese 2+ goals

36%

Cremonese 3+ goals

13%

Spezia 1+ goals

74%

Spezia 2+ goals

39%

Spezia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)

47%

Spezia (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 24 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.15 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Spezia attack 1.29 + Cremonese defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cremonese scores more

34%

level

26%

Spezia scores more

39%

Spezia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Carnesecchi

Cremonese · G

8.9

Match Events

41'

D. Ciofani

53'

M'Bala Nzola← M. Bourabia

54'

A. Reca← D. Nikolaou

61'

D. Verde← E. Gyasi

66'

V. Chiricheș← A. Ferrari

66'

M. Benassi← M. Castagnetti

76'

Kevin Agudelo

77'

J. Vásquez↳ P. Galdames

78'

T. Cipot← K. Agudelo

78'

V. Kovalenko← S. Esposito

79'

Ethan Ampadu

89'

F. Afena-Gyan← D. Ciofani

90+3'

C. Buonaiuto← D. Okereke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CremoneseSpezia

Overview

30%Possession70%

9Total Shots18

0.90Expected Goals (xG)1.30

3Corners13

8Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots18

4On Target8

3Off Target5

2Blocked5

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box7

Passing

30%Possession70%

251Total Passes571

168Accurate Passes472

67%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls6

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4