Cremonese 2–0 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cremonese

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Spezia

A. Brighenti 21'

E. Terranova 16' (pen)

9/15/2018

Serie B · Round 3Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Cremonese46%

×Draw27%

Spezia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CremoneseExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.00

Cremonese

1.38

Spezia

1.00

Cremonese creates 38% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 91 away

1.41

creates per match

1.13

0.87

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Cremonese

1.41

Spezia

1.13

allows per match

Cremonese

0.87

Spezia

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par

Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw

73%

Cremonese or Spezia

73%

Draw or Spezia

54%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+

22%

Spezia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals

75%

Cremonese 2+ goals

40%

Cremonese 3+ goals

16%

Spezia 1+ goals

63%

Spezia 2+ goals

26%

Spezia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)

63%

Spezia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.87 · 113 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.41 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Spezia attack 1.13 + Cremonese defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cremonese scores more

46%

level

27%

Spezia scores more

27%

Cremonese at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

E. TerranovaPenalty

21'

A. Brighenti↳ G. Perrulli

28'

Matteo Ricci

46'

S. Bidaoui← N. Pierini

59'

M. Crimi← L. Mora

65'

X. Emmers← D. Croce

69'

Paulinho← A. Brighenti

72'

Claudio Terzi

76'

E. Gyasi← M. Ricci

79'

A. Krešić← G. Perrulli

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CremoneseSpezia

Overview

49%Possession51%

5Total Shots9

3Corners5

16Fouls21

Shots

5Total Shots9

2On Target3

3Off Target6

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls21

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3