Cremonese 2–1 Pisa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cremonese

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Pisa

D. Ciofani 11'

E. Valeri 6'

L. Vido 19'

2/6/2021

Serie B · Round 21Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Cremonese45%

×Draw27%

Pisa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CremoneseExpected goals in this matchPisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.04

Cremonese

1.39

Pisa

1.04

Cremonese creates 34% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 116 away

1.41

creates per match

1.21

0.87

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Cremonese

1.41

Pisa

1.21

allows per match

Cremonese

0.87

Pisa

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par

Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Pisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw

72%

Cremonese or Pisa

73%

Draw or Pisa

55%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+

21%

Pisa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals

75%

Cremonese 2+ goals

40%

Cremonese 3+ goals

16%

Pisa 1+ goals

65%

Pisa 2+ goals

28%

Pisa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)

61%

Pisa (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.87 · 113 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.41 + Pisa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pisa attack 1.21 + Cremonese defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cremonese scores more

45%

level

27%

Pisa scores more

28%

Cremonese at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

E. Valeri

Cremonese · D

7.9

Match Events

6'

E. Valeri↳ M. Castagnetti

11'

12'

13'

19'

46'

Samuel Gustafson← P. Bartolomei

46'

M. Pinato← G. Gaetano

46'

S. Birindelli← A. Meroni

54'

Luca Mazzitelli

60'

D. Soddimo← D. Marsura

61'

L. Colombo← D. Ciofani

69'

M. Marconi← L. Mazzitelli

69'

70'

79'

83'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CremonesePisa

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots12

4Corners3

18Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots12

7On Target3

4Off Target7

0Blocked2

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

407Total Passes391

308Accurate Passes294

76%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2