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Cremonese vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ascoli
Ascoli
D. Soddimo 20'
9/30/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Cremonese48%
×Draw27%
Ascoli26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.44
Ascoli
0.98

Cremonese creates 47% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 117 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.39
Ascoli
1.06

allows per match

Cremonese
0.89
Ascoli
1.49

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
74%
Cremonese or Ascoli
73%
Draw or Ascoli
52%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
23%
Ascoli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
76%
Cremonese 2+ goals
42%
Cremonese 3+ goals
18%
Ascoli 1+ goals
62%
Ascoli 2+ goals
26%
Ascoli 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
65%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Ascoli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ascoli attack 1.06 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cremonese scores more
48%
level
27%
Ascoli scores more
26%

Cremonese at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. SoddimoCremoneseCremonese · F
8.2

Match Events

15'
Mariano Arini
20'
D. Soddimo↳ M. Bianchetti
46'
L. Rosseti← M. Ardemagni
58'
Antonio Caracciolo
60'
M. Chajia← N. Ninković
63'
Andrew Gravillon
70'
S. Palombi← F. Ceravolo
77'
L. Laverone← R. Pucino
81'
D. Ciofani← D. Soddimo
86'
Alessio Da Cruz
90'
L. Ravanelli← Claiton

Possession

37%Cremonese

Shots

21Cremonese

Pass accuracy

46%Cremonese

Statistics

CremoneseAscoli
Overview
37%Possession63%
21Total Shots5
3Corners4
17Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots5
8On Target1
9Off Target4
4Blocked0
10Inside Box3
11Outside Box2
Passing
37%Possession63%
322Total Passes539
228Accurate Passes441
71%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
17Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Cremonese vs Ascoli

Cremonese beat Ascoli 1-0 in Serie B on September 30, 2019.

Goals: D. Soddimo (20').

Ascoli controlled possession (63%) and registered 5 shots to 21.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.