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Creck vs Mitundu Baptist — Super League 2026

Creck
Creck
Preview
12:30
Mitundu Baptist
Mitundu Baptist
7/18/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10
57%
Creck
model favours
57%27%16%

Creck and Mitundu Baptist have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
34%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Creck57%
×Draw27%
Mitundu Baptist16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Creck
1.41
Mitundu Baptist
0.59

Creck creates 139% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 4 away

creates per match

Creck
1.32
Mitundu Baptist
0.25

allows per match

Creck
0.94
Mitundu Baptist
1.50

finishing

Creck+0.00on par
Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Creck ↓

Mitundu Baptist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Creck or draw
84%
Creck or Mitundu Baptist
73%
Draw or Mitundu Baptist
43%

Winning margin

Creck wins by 2+
29%
Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Creck 1+ goals
76%
Creck 2+ goals
41%
Creck 3+ goals
17%
Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals
45%
Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals
12%
Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Creck (draw refunded)
79%
Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Creck at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Creck attack 1.32 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.25 + Creck defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Creck scores more
57%
level
27%
Mitundu Baptist scores more
16%

Creck at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Creck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Creck
LLWLL
Baptist
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Creck host Mitundu Baptist

July 18, 2026: Creck take on Mitundu Baptist in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.