Creck vs Karonga United — Super League 2026
Super League · Round 26
Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Creck48%
Karonga United24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Creck creates 57% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 83 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Creck ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Creck at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches
Karonga United away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.42 · 83 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Creck attack 1.32 + Karonga United defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37
Karonga United attack 0.80 + Creck defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.87
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Creck at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Creck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Be Forward Wanderers
Nyasa Big Bullets
Kamuzu Barracks
Silver Strikers
Adelaide Blue Eagles
TN Stars
Civil Sporting
Mighty Tigers
MzuniKaronga United
Moyale Barracks
Chitipa United
Ntopwa
Masters Security
Mlatho Mponela
Dwangwa UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Creck host Karonga United on Saturday, 16 January 2027 at 12:30. The match is part of the Super League 2026/2027 season.
Creck face Karonga United (Super League)
Super League returns with Creck hosting Karonga United. Match starts January 16, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.