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Creck vs Dedza Dynamos — Super League 2026

Creck
Creck
Preview
12:30
Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
1/30/2027Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28
52%
Creck
model favours
52%26%22%
1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Creck52%
×Draw26%
Dedza Dynamos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Creck
1.50
Dedza Dynamos
0.86

Creck creates 74% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 65 away

creates per match

Creck
1.32
Dedza Dynamos
0.78

allows per match

Creck
0.94
Dedza Dynamos
1.69

finishing

Creck+0.00on par
Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Creck ↓

Dedza Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Creck or draw
78%
Creck or Dedza Dynamos
74%
Draw or Dedza Dynamos
48%

Winning margin

Creck wins by 2+
27%
Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Creck 1+ goals
78%
Creck 2+ goals
44%
Creck 3+ goals
19%
Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
58%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
21%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Creck (draw refunded)
71%
Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Creck at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Creck attack 1.32 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Creck defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Creck scores more
52%
level
26%
Dedza Dynamos scores more
22%

Creck at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Creck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Creck
LLWLL
Dynamos
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Creck face Dedza Dynamos (Super League)

Super League returns with Creck hosting Dedza Dynamos. Match starts January 30, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.