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Crawley Town vs York — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
15:00
York
York
1/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 24The Broadfield Stadium
41%
Crawley Town
model favours
41%27%32%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Crawley Town41%
×Draw27%
York32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.35
York
1.17

Crawley Town creates 15% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 15 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.31
York
1.13

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.20
York
1.40

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
68%
Crawley Town or York
73%
Draw or York
59%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
19%
York wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
74%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
39%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
15%
York 1+ goals
69%
York 2+ goals
33%
York 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
56%
York (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 152 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.31 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

York attack 1.13 + Crawley Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crawley Town scores more
41%
level
27%
York scores more
32%

Crawley Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crawley Town vs York — Match Preview

Crawley Town face York on January 9, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crawley Town host York at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.