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Crawley Town vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
T. Nichols 90+7' (pen)
E. Osadebe 55' (pen)
3/16/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 26The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crawley Town30%
×Draw25%
Walsall45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.25
Walsall
1.58

Walsall creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.30
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.38
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Crawley Town-0.22scores less
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
55%
Crawley Town or Walsall
75%
Draw or Walsall
70%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
13%
Walsall wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
71%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
36%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
13%
Walsall 1+ goals
79%
Walsall 2+ goals
47%
Walsall 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
40%
Walsall (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Walsall attack 1.78 + Crawley Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Crawley Town scores more
30%
level
25%
Walsall scores more
45%

Walsall at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. KinsellaWalsallWalsall · M
7.6

Match Events

21'
J. Tilley← J. Hesketh
40'
James Clarke
46'
T. Craig← A. Davies
55'
Jordan Tunnicliffe
55'
E. OsadebePenalty
63'
Joe McNerney
71'
J. Wright← G. Francomb
71'
N. Tsaroulla← J. Maguire-Drew
75'
A. Bates← E. Osadebe
82'
D. Rodari← J. Hessenthaler
90'
Nick Tsaroulla
90'
Liam Roberts
90+4'
T. Wright← J. Gordon
90'
D. Osei Yaw← C. Lavery
90+7'
T. NicholsPenalty

Possession

50%Crawley

Shots

12Crawley

Pass accuracy

53%Crawley

Statistics

CrawleyWalsall
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots9
3Corners4
19Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots9
5On Target2
3Off Target3
4Blocked4
8Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
322Total Passes317
179Accurate Passes158
56%Pass Accuracy50%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
19Fouls17
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

League Two: Crawley Town 1–1 Walsall

Crawley Town and Walsall drew 1-1 in League Two on March 16, 2021.

Goals: E. Osadebe (55' pen), T. Nichols (90+7' pen).

Crawley Town controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at The People's Pension Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.