Crawley Town vs Newport County

Crawley Town

Preview

15:00

Newport County

12/12/2026

League Two · Round 19The Broadfield Stadium

Big match

48%

Crawley Town

model favours

48%24%28%

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crawley Town48%

×Draw24%

Newport County28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.26

Crawley Town

1.71

Newport County

1.26

Crawley Town creates 36% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.29

creates per match

1.11

1.41

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.29

Newport County

1.11

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.41

Newport County

2.12

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Crawley Town-0.29scores less

Newport County-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

72%

Crawley Town or Newport County

76%

Draw or Newport County

52%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

26%

Newport County wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

82%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

51%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

24%

Newport County 1+ goals

72%

Newport County 2+ goals

36%

Newport County 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

63%

Newport County (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.29 + Newport County defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.71

Newport County attack 1.11 + Crawley Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Crawley Town scores more

48%

level

24%

Newport County scores more

28%

Crawley Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Crawley Town

Balanced

Newport County

Balanced

55%Possession49%

71%Pass accuracy67%

12.7Shots11.6

1.36xGBiggest gap1.16

Crawley TownNewport County

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Crawley Town

3

Draws

2

Newport County

Avg goals: 3BTTS: 70%

2–01–24–04–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Town

DDDLL

County

DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff