Crawley Town 2–1 Newport County: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Newport County

A. Nadesan 57'

J. Tilley 40'

N. Moriah-Welsh 79'

10/15/2022

League Two · Round 15Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crawley Town49%

×Draw24%

Newport County27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.21

Crawley Town

1.71

Newport County

1.21

Crawley Town creates 41% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.30

creates per match

1.05

1.38

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Newport County

1.05

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.38

Newport County

2.13

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Crawley Town-0.22scores less

Newport County-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

73%

Crawley Town or Newport County

76%

Draw or Newport County

51%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

26%

Newport County wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

82%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

51%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

24%

Newport County 1+ goals

70%

Newport County 2+ goals

34%

Newport County 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

64%

Newport County (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Newport County defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.71

Newport County attack 1.05 + Crawley Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crawley Town scores more

49%

level

24%

Newport County scores more

27%

Crawley Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Tilley

Crawley Town · M

7.5

Match Events

40'

J. Tilley↳ T. Fellows

47'

Scot Bennett

57'

A. Nadesan↳ J. Powell

58'

N. Moriah-Welsh← R. Willmott

64'

Cameron Norman

66'

D. Telford← A. Nadesan

66'

G. Francomb← T. Johnson

69'

T. Nevers← M. Dolan

72'

A. Oteh← T. Fellows

75'

C. Zimba← O. Bogle

75'

L. Collins← A. Wildig

79'

N. Moriah-Welsh

83'

Tom Nichols

83'

Nathan Moriah-Welsh

90'

L. Francillette← J. Tilley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyNewport

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots13

4Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots13

4On Target6

4Off Target5

2Blocked2

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

327Total Passes394

195Accurate Passes255

60%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2