Crawley Town 0–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

2/2/2021

League Two · Round 25The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Crawley Town38%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.19

Crawley Town

1.25

Leyton Orient

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 152 home / 94 away

1.31

creates per match

1.17

1.20

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.31

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.20

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

65%

Crawley Town or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

62%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

16%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

71%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

36%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

13%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

70%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

33%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

52%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 152 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.31 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Crawley Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crawley Town scores more

38%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

35%

Crawley Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Powell

Crawley Town · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

Adam Thompson

30'

Hector Kyprianou

41'

T. Abrahams← R. Sotiriou

54'

A. Davies← T. Dallison

54'

J. Tilley← S. Matthews

62'

J. McNerney← J. Tunnicliffe

81'

D. Rodari← J. Hessenthaler

81'

J. McAnuff← D. Kemp

85'

Conor Wilkinson

87'

J. Widdowson← S. Ling

88'

Craig Clay

90'

Davide Rodari

90'

James Brophy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyLeyton

Overview

62%Possession38%

7Total Shots9

7Corners7

18Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots9

0On Target3

6Off Target4

1Blocked2

6Inside Box5

1Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

456Total Passes281

346Accurate Passes183

76%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0