Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town

Crawley Town

Preview

15:00

Fleetwood Town

11/21/2026

League Two · Round 16The Broadfield Stadium

Big match

40%

Crawley Town

model favours

40%26%34%

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Crawley Town40%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

Crawley Town

1.40

Fleetwood Town

1.25

Crawley Town creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.30

creates per match

1.12

1.38

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Fleetwood Town

1.12

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.38

Fleetwood Town

1.49

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Crawley Town-0.22scores less

Fleetwood Town-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

66%

Crawley Town or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

19%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

75%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

41%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

17%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

71%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

36%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

55%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.49 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fleetwood Town attack 1.12 + Crawley Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more

40%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

34%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Crawley Town

Balanced

Fleetwood Town

Defensively solid

55%PossessionBiggest gap49%

72%Pass accuracy68%

12.7Shots11.9

1.36xG1.44

Crawley TownFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2

Crawley Town

0

Draws

3

Fleetwood Town

Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%

0–12–11–20–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Town

DDDLL

Town

WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff