Crawley Town 1–1 Bradford: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bradford

H. Pritchard 25' (OG)

L. Novak 11'

12/15/2020

League Two · Round 18The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Crawley Town39%

×Draw27%

Bradford34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Crawley Town

1.27

Bradford

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 152 home / 139 away

1.31

creates per match

1.15

1.20

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.31

Bradford

1.15

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.20

Bradford

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

66%

Crawley Town or Bradford

73%

Draw or Bradford

61%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

17%

Bradford wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

72%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

36%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

14%

Bradford 1+ goals

69%

Bradford 2+ goals

33%

Bradford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

53%

Bradford (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 152 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.31 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bradford attack 1.15 + Crawley Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crawley Town scores more

39%

level

27%

Bradford scores more

34%

Crawley Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Davies

Crawley Town · D

7.5

Match Events

11'

L. Novak

25'

H. PritchardOwn goal

61'

A. Nadesan← T. Dallison

61'

N. Ferguson← S. Matthews

69'

K. Scales← A. Samuels

78'

T. French← H. Pritchard

78'

C. Donaldson← L. Novak

81'

S. Ashford← T. Nichols

90'

Ashley Nadesan

90'

Anthony O'Connor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyBradford

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots8

4Corners4

17Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots8

0On Target4

9Off Target1

3Blocked3

7Inside Box7

5Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

461Total Passes347

316Accurate Passes202

69%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1