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Crawley Town vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
14:00
Barnet
Barnet
9/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 8The Broadfield Stadium
Big match
40%
Barnet
model favours
34%26%40%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Crawley Town34%
×Draw26%
Barnet40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.30
Barnet
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.29
Barnet
1.43

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.41
Barnet
1.31

finishing

Crawley Town-0.29scores less
Barnet-0.21scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
60%
Crawley Town or Barnet
74%
Draw or Barnet
66%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
15%
Barnet wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
73%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
37%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
14%
Barnet 1+ goals
76%
Barnet 2+ goals
41%
Barnet 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
46%
Barnet (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.29 + Barnet defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Barnet attack 1.43 + Crawley Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more
34%
level
26%
Barnet scores more
40%

Barnet at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Crawley Town sit 22, Barnet 8 in the table
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crawley Town
Balanced
Barnet
Possession-dominant
54%Possession56%
71%Pass accuracy68%
12.7Shots13.7
1.41xGBiggest gap1.77
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Crawley TownBarnet

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Crawley Town
3
Draws
3
Barnet
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 70%
1–11–22–02–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
Barnet
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crawley Town host Barnet

September 26, 2026: Crawley Town take on Barnet in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crawley Town host Barnet at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.