Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom — Ekstraklasa 2018

Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
2/10/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 20Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cracovia Krakow58%
×Draw24%
Radomiak Radom19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Krakow
1.74
Radomiak Radom
0.88

Cracovia Krakow creates 98% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow
1.22
Radomiak Radom
0.85

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow
0.91
Radomiak Radom
2.26

finishing

Cracovia Krakow-0.31scores less
Radomiak Radom+0.07on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Radomiak Radom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw
81%
Cracovia Krakow or Radomiak Radom
76%
Draw or Radomiak Radom
42%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
32%
Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
82%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
52%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
25%
Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
59%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
22%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
75%
Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Radomiak Radom away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.26 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.22 + Radomiak Radom defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.74

Radomiak Radom attack 0.85 + Cracovia Krakow defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more
58%
level
24%
Radomiak Radom scores more
19%

Cracovia Krakow at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Cracovia Krakow 6–0 Radomiak Radom

Cracovia Krakow beat Radomiak Radom 6-0 in Ekstraklasa on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.