Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Jagiellonia: Result & Stats

Cracovia Krakow

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jagiellonia

Jesús Imaz 21' (pen)

4/23/2019

Ekstraklasa · Championship Round - 2Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Cracovia Krakow42%

×Draw25%

Jagiellonia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia KrakowExpected goals in this matchJagiellonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.31

Cracovia Krakow

1.50

Jagiellonia

1.31

Cracovia Krakow creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

1.25

creates per match

1.48

1.15

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow

1.25

Jagiellonia

1.48

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow

1.15

Jagiellonia

1.76

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Cracovia Krakow+0.18scores more

Jagiellonia-0.06on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Jagiellonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw

67%

Cracovia Krakow or Jagiellonia

75%

Draw or Jagiellonia

58%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

20%

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

78%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

44%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

19%

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

73%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

38%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

56%

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 23 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.76 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.25 + Jagiellonia defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jagiellonia attack 1.48 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more

42%

level

25%

Jagiellonia scores more

33%

Cracovia Krakow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Niko Datković

21'

Jesús ImazPenalty

56'

Bodvar Bodvarsson

61'

61'

68'

72'

72'

M. Pospíšil← M. Poletanović

90+2'

M. Twarowski← Jesús Imaz

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CracoviaJagiellonia

Overview

63%Possession37%

10Total Shots3

0Corners3

15Fouls22

Shots

10Total Shots3

2On Target2

8Off Target1

Passing

63%Possession37%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls22

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

Ekstraklasa: Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia beat Cracovia Krakow 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on April 23, 2019.

Goals: Jesús Imaz (21' pen).

Cracovia Krakow controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 3.

The match was played at Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium in Krakow.

Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Ekstraklasa: Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Jagiellonia