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Cracovia Kraków II vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Cracovia Kraków II
Cracovia Kraków II
FT
1 – 2
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
11/25/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Cracovia Kraków II54%
×Draw22%
Sokół Sieniawa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Kraków II
1.97
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

Cracovia Kraków II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

creates per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.87
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.27
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Kraków II ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cracovia Kraków II or draw
75%
Cracovia Kraków II or Sokół Sieniawa
78%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
46%

Winning margin

Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+
31%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals
86%
Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals
58%
Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals
31%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
72%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
36%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)
69%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Kraków II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.87 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cracovia Kraków II scores more
54%
level
22%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
25%

Cracovia Kraków II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Cracovia Kraków II 1–2 Sokół Sieniawa

Sokół Sieniawa beat Cracovia Kraków II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka in Krakow.