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CR Khemis Zemamra vs Renaissance Berkane — Botola Pro 2025

CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
1/7/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 15Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra36%
×Draw30%
Renaissance Berkane34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.06
Renaissance Berkane
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.25
Renaissance Berkane
1.02

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.03
Renaissance Berkane
0.88

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw
66%
CR Khemis Zemamra or Renaissance Berkane
70%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
64%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
14%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
65%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
29%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
9%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
64%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
27%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
51%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.25 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.02 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
36%
level
30%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
34%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: CR Khemis Zemamra 2–1 Renaissance Berkane

CR Khemis Zemamra beat Renaissance Berkane 2-1 in Botola Pro on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Choukri in Zemamra.