CR Belouizdad 0–1 USM Alger: Result & Stats

CR Belouizdad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

USM Alger

3/15/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

CR Belouizdad52%

×Draw27%

USM Alger21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CR BelouizdadExpected goals in this matchUSM Alger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.78

CR Belouizdad

1.42

USM Alger

0.78

CR Belouizdad creates 82% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 123 away

1.69

creates per match

0.87

0.68

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

CR Belouizdad

1.69

USM Alger

0.87

allows per match

CR Belouizdad

0.68

USM Alger

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

USM Alger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw

79%

CR Belouizdad or USM Alger

73%

Draw or USM Alger

48%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+

26%

USM Alger wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals

76%

CR Belouizdad 2+ goals

41%

CR Belouizdad 3+ goals

17%

USM Alger 1+ goals

54%

USM Alger 2+ goals

18%

USM Alger 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)

72%

USM Alger (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.68 · 122 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.69 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

USM Alger attack 0.87 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more

52%

level

27%

USM Alger scores more

21%

CR Belouizdad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff