CR Belouizdad 0–0 MC Alger: Result & Stats

CR Belouizdad

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

MC Alger

1/14/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

CR Belouizdad49%

×Draw29%

MC Alger23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CR BelouizdadExpected goals in this matchMC Alger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.80

CR Belouizdad

1.31

MC Alger

0.80

CR Belouizdad creates 64% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 124 away

1.69

creates per match

0.92

0.68

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

CR Belouizdad

1.69

MC Alger

0.92

allows per match

CR Belouizdad

0.68

MC Alger

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

MC Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

MC Alger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw

77%

CR Belouizdad or MC Alger

71%

Draw or MC Alger

51%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+

23%

MC Alger wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals

73%

CR Belouizdad 2+ goals

38%

CR Belouizdad 3+ goals

14%

MC Alger 1+ goals

55%

MC Alger 2+ goals

19%

MC Alger 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)

68%

MC Alger (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.68 · 122 matches

MC Alger away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.69 + MC Alger defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.31

MC Alger attack 0.92 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more

49%

level

29%

MC Alger scores more

23%

CR Belouizdad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff