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CPK vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

CPK
CPK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
6/2/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Championship Round - 4Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

CPK74%
×Draw15%
Cheng Fung12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CPK
2.98
Cheng Fung
1.15

CPK creates 159% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

creates per match

CPK
4.59
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

CPK
0.41
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

CPK+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CPK ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

CPK or draw
88%
CPK or Cheng Fung
85%
Draw or Cheng Fung
26%

Winning margin

CPK wins by 2+
54%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CPK 1+ goals
95%
CPK 2+ goals
79%
CPK 3+ goals
56%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
68%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
32%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CPK (draw refunded)
86%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CPK at home — creates 4.59, concedes 0.41 · 37 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CPK attack 4.59 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.98

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + CPK defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

CPK scores more
74%
level
15%
Cheng Fung scores more
12%

CPK at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CPK vs Cheng Fung

CPK and Cheng Fung drew 1-1 in Primeira Divisão on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.