Cowdenbeath 1–4 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Cowdenbeath

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Stirling Albion

F. Mullen 32'

M. Wright 60'

D. Duffy 37', 18'

D. NGuene 12'

2/15/2020

League Two · Round 25Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cowdenbeath34%

×Draw26%

Stirling Albion40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CowdenbeathExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.38

Cowdenbeath

1.25

Stirling Albion

1.38

Stirling Albion creates 10% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 114 away

1.18

creates per match

1.42

1.34

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Cowdenbeath

1.18

Stirling Albion

1.42

allows per match

Cowdenbeath

1.34

Stirling Albion

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw

60%

Cowdenbeath or Stirling Albion

74%

Draw or Stirling Albion

66%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

15%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

71%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

36%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

13%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

75%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

40%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

46%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 1.18 + Stirling Albion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stirling Albion attack 1.42 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more

34%

level

26%

Stirling Albion scores more

40%

Stirling Albion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

D. NGuene

18'

D. Duffy

32'

F. Mullen

37'

D. Duffy↳ R. McGeachie

48'

56'

60'

64'

69'

72'

H. Swan← J. Allan

80'

R. Hughes← J. Creaney

82'

83'

85'

88'

Cowdenbeath

Stirling

1

Hogarth

3

▼

Creaney

5

McLean

2

A

McGeachie

6

McGregor

4

Banner

7

▼

Wilson

8

Docherty

11

⚽2

▼

Duffy

9

⚽

Wright

10

⚽A

NGuene

1

Rae

5

Barr

2

⚽

Mullen

3

Hamilton

4

Todd

8

▼

Morrison

6

Miller

11

▼

Taylor

10

Renton

9

▼

Allan

7

Buchanan

Manager: G. Bollan

48'▲D. Cox←▼G. Morrison

72'▲H. Swan←▼J. Allan

82'▲A. Thomas←▼G. Taylor

Cowdenbeath substitutes

18Cox16Swan15Thomas19Glass12Valentine14Pyper17Whyte

Manager: K. Rutkiewicz

80'▲R. Hughes←▼J. Creaney

83'▲P. Willis←▼D. Wilson

85'▲J. Peters←▼D. Duffy

Stirling Albion substitutes

16Hughes15Willis19Peters12Jardine18Heaver17Stott14Nicoll

Match Recap: Cowdenbeath vs Stirling Albion

Stirling Albion beat Cowdenbeath 4-1 in League Two on February 15, 2020.

Goals: D. NGuene (12'), D. Duffy (18', 37'), F. Mullen (32'), M. Wright (60').

The match was played at Central Park in Cowdenbeath.

Cowdenbeath vs Stirling Albion — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cowdenbeath vs Stirling Albion