Cowdenbeath 3–1 Stenhousemuir: Result & Stats

Cowdenbeath

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Stenhousemuir

J. Allan 82'

H. Swan 33'

M. Herd 6'

C. McBride 17'

12/21/2019

League Two · Round 17Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cowdenbeath35%

×Draw27%

Stenhousemuir38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CowdenbeathExpected goals in this matchStenhousemuir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.31

Cowdenbeath

1.25

Stenhousemuir

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

1.18

creates per match

1.28

1.34

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Cowdenbeath

1.18

Stenhousemuir

1.28

allows per match

Cowdenbeath

1.34

Stenhousemuir

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Stenhousemuir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw

62%

Cowdenbeath or Stenhousemuir

73%

Draw or Stenhousemuir

65%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

15%

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

71%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

36%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

13%

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

73%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

38%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

48%

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 1.18 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stenhousemuir attack 1.28 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more

35%

level

27%

Stenhousemuir scores more

38%

Stenhousemuir at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stenhousemuir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Herd↳ C. Barr

17'

C. McBride

33'

H. Swan↳ M. Herd

51'

K. Marley← D. Terry

61'

K. Anderson← C. ONeil

65'

C. McBride

78'

A. Thomas← M. Herd

81'

J. Allan

82'

J. Allan↳ H. Swan

84'

R. Blair

85'

J. Armstrong

85'

K. Miller

89'

E. Valentine← G. Taylor

90+2'

K. Sneddon← J. Allan

Cowdenbeath

Stenhousemuir

1

▼

Terry

21

Tiffoney

5

Marsh

2

▼

4

12

18

6

9

11

16

⚽

McBride

1

A

5

A

Barr

2

Mullen

11

⚽A

3

4

6

8

⚽A

▼

Herd

10

▼

Taylor

7

Smith

9

⚽

▼

Allan

Manager: G. Bollan

78'▲A. Thomas←▼M. Herd

89'▲E. Valentine←▼G. Taylor

90+2'▲K. Sneddon←▼J. Allan

Cowdenbeath substitutes

16Thomas12Valentine15Sneddon18Pollock19Glass17Whyte14Pyper

Manager: D. Irons

51'▲K. Marley←▼D. Terry

61'▲K. Anderson←▼C. ONeil

Stenhousemuir substitutes

17Marley20Anderson14Watters22Potter7Scullion10Aloulou

League Two: Cowdenbeath 3–1 Stenhousemuir

Cowdenbeath beat Stenhousemuir 3-1 in League Two on December 21, 2019.

Goals: M. Herd (6'), C. McBride (17'), H. Swan (33'), J. Allan (82').

The match was played at Central Park in Cowdenbeath.

Cowdenbeath vs Stenhousemuir — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Cowdenbeath 3–1 Stenhousemuir