Cowdenbeath 1–2 Annan Athletic: Result & Stats

Cowdenbeath

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Annan Athletic

J. Sheerin 28'

S. Swinglehurst 50'

T. Muir 31'

8/11/2018

League Two · Round 2Central Park (Cowdenbeath)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cowdenbeath37%

×Draw26%

Annan Athletic36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CowdenbeathExpected goals in this matchAnnan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.29

Cowdenbeath

1.31

Annan Athletic

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 95 away

1.18

creates per match

1.25

1.34

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Cowdenbeath

1.18

Annan Athletic

1.25

allows per match

Cowdenbeath

1.34

Annan Athletic

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Annan Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw

64%

Cowdenbeath or Annan Athletic

74%

Draw or Annan Athletic

63%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

17%

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

73%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

38%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

14%

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

72%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

37%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

51%

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 1.18 + Annan Athletic defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Annan Athletic attack 1.25 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more

37%

level

26%

Annan Athletic scores more

36%

Cowdenbeath at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cowdenbeath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

J. Sheerin

31'

T. Muir

50'

S. Swinglehurst

62'

H. Swan← M. Scott

64'

R. Fergusson← A. Smith

73'

T. Wallace← T. Muir

77'

K. Renton← R. Buchanan

83'

O. Moxon← S. Roberts

Cowdenbeath

Annan

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: G. Bollan

62'▲H. Swan←▼M. Scott

77'▲K. Renton←▼R. Buchanan

Cowdenbeath substitutes

SwanRentonKayFotheringhamScullionGoodfellow

64'▲R. Fergusson←▼A. Smith

73'▲T. Wallace←▼T. Muir

83'▲O. Moxon←▼S. Roberts

Annan Athletic substitutes

FergussonWallaceMoxonBrannanWrightWatson

League Two: Cowdenbeath 1–2 Annan Athletic

Annan Athletic beat Cowdenbeath 2-1 in League Two on August 11, 2018.

Goals: J. Sheerin (28'), T. Muir (31'), S. Swinglehurst (50').

The match was played at Central Park (Cowdenbeath).

Cowdenbeath vs Annan Athletic — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Cowdenbeath 1–2 Annan Athletic