Coventry 1–0 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Coventry

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wycombe

C. Chaplin 82'

10/13/2018

League One · Round 13Ricoh Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry40%

×Draw29%

Wycombe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.04

Coventry

1.22

Wycombe

1.04

Coventry creates 17% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 158 away

1.12

creates per match

1.26

0.83

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Coventry

1.12

Wycombe

1.26

allows per match

Coventry

0.83

Wycombe

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

69%

Coventry or Wycombe

71%

Draw or Wycombe

60%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

17%

Wycombe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

70%

Coventry 2+ goals

34%

Coventry 3+ goals

12%

Wycombe 1+ goals

65%

Wycombe 2+ goals

28%

Wycombe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

56%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Wycombe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Wycombe attack 1.26 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coventry scores more

40%

level

29%

Wycombe scores more

31%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

B. Morris← M. Bloomfield

68'

Dominic Gape

74'

Luke Thomas

74'

Randell Williams

78'

P. Cowan-Hall← R Williams

78'

F. Onyedinma← C. Mackail-Smith

82'

C. Chaplin↳ D. Sterling

89'

Bryn Morris

89'

L. Kelly← T. Bayliss

90'

A. Bakayoko← J. Hiwula-Mayifuila

Coventry

Wycombe

1

6

3

16

26

10

▼

18

4

20

9

▼

Mackail-S

24

▼

1

12

4

5

17

A

Sterling

8

Doyle

23

Thomas

20

▼

Bayliss

18

Clarke-Ha

11

▼

Hiwula-Ma

10

⚽

Chaplin

Manager: M. Robins

89'▲L. Kelly←▼T. Bayliss

90'▲A. Bakayoko←▼J. Hiwula-Mayifuila

Coventry substitutes

6Kelly21Bakayoko13O'Brien15Hyam16Ogogo22Andreu27Thompson

Manager: G. Ainsworth

24'▲B. Morris←▼M. Bloomfield

78'▲P. Cowan-Hall←▼R Williams

78'▲F. Onyedinma←▼C. Mackail-Smith

Wycombe substitutes

17Morris12Cowan-Hall19Onyedinma2Jombarti11Kashket25Samuel30Ma-Kalambay