Coventry 2–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sunderland

V. Gyökeres 89'

J. Allen 25'

A. Diallo 90+4'

2/25/2023

Championship · Round 34The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Coventry49%

×Draw25%

Sunderland26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.06

Coventry

1.57

Sunderland

1.06

Coventry creates 48% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 40 away

1.82

creates per match

1.14

0.99

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Coventry

1.82

Sunderland

1.14

allows per match

Coventry

0.99

Sunderland

1.32

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Coventry+0.10scores more

Sunderland-0.01on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

74%

Coventry or Sunderland

75%

Draw or Sunderland

51%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

25%

Sunderland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

79%

Coventry 2+ goals

46%

Coventry 3+ goals

21%

Sunderland 1+ goals

65%

Sunderland 2+ goals

29%

Sunderland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

66%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.99 · 53 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + Sunderland defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Coventry defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Coventry scores more

49%

level

25%

Sunderland scores more

26%

Coventry at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

V. Gyökeres

Coventry · F

8.3

Match Events

23'

Daniel Neil

25'

J. Allen↳ V. Gyökeres

39'

Kasey Palmer

45+2'

Josh Eccles

45+2'

Amad Diallo

52'

J. Wilson-Esbrand← K. Palmer

69'

A. Pritchard← J. Clarke

70'

P. Ekwah← J. Gelhardt

70'

A. Ba← É. Michut

74'

L. O'Nien← D. Neil

80'

M. Godden← J. Bidwell

80'

M. Rose← C. Doyle

81'

J. Bennette← A. Alese

86'

Ben Wilson

89'

V. Gyökeres↳ M. Godden

90+4'

A. Diallo↳ J. Bennette

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventrySunderland

Overview

29%Possession71%

15Total Shots13

4Corners7

11Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots13

3On Target5

8Off Target5

4Blocked3

12Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

29%Possession71%

224Total Passes561

145Accurate Passes479

65%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1