Coventry 1–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

J. Clarke-Harris 68'

L. Cattermole 49'

9/29/2018

League One · Round 10Ricoh Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry36%

×Draw29%

Sunderland34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.06

Coventry

1.10

Sunderland

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 86 away

1.12

creates per match

1.30

0.83

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Coventry

1.12

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

Coventry

0.83

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

66%

Coventry or Sunderland

71%

Draw or Sunderland

64%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

15%

Sunderland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

67%

Coventry 2+ goals

30%

Coventry 3+ goals

10%

Sunderland 1+ goals

65%

Sunderland 2+ goals

29%

Sunderland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

51%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Coventry scores more

36%

level

29%

Sunderland scores more

34%

Coventry at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. Matthews← G. Loovens

9'

17'

30'

37'

49'

L. Cattermole↳ C. Maguire

66'

M. Power← D. McGeouch

68'

J. Clarke-Harris↳ D. Sterling

77'

J. Jones← L. Thomas

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CoventrySunderland

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots10

4Corners7

7Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots10

8On Target7

2Off Target3

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

6Saves7

Discipline

7Fouls15

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1