Coventry 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Wednesday

J. Allen 90'

V. Gyökeres 57'

1/27/2021

Championship · Round 24St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 48+ matches

Coventry57%

×Draw24%

Sheffield Wednesday19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.88

Coventry

1.71

Sheffield Wednesday

0.88

Coventry creates 94% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 48 away

1.82

creates per match

0.78

0.97

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Coventry

1.82

Sheffield Wednesday

0.78

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Sheffield Wednesday

1.60

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Coventry+0.09on par

Sheffield Wednesday+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

81%

Coventry or Sheffield Wednesday

76%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

43%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

32%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

82%

Coventry 2+ goals

51%

Coventry 3+ goals

24%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

59%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

22%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

75%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 54 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.78 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Coventry scores more

57%

level

24%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

19%

Coventry at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. O'Hare

Coventry · M

8.7

Match Events

24'

Joey Pelupessy

46'

J. Pask← F. Dabo

50'

Matthew Penney

57'

V. Gyökeres↳ C. O'Hare

59'

F. Dele-Bashiru← J. Pelupessy

60'

Dominic Hyam

63'

J. Shipley← B. Sheaf

75'

C. Paterson← A. Green

75'

K. Harris← J. Windass

82'

J. Allen← V. Gyökeres

82'

A. Bakayoko← M. Biamou

82'

I. Brown← L. Palmer

82'

J. Marriott← S. Hutchinson

85'

Julian Börner

87'

Matty James

90'

J. Allen↳ C. O'Hare

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventrySheffield

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots6

5Corners7

8Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots6

5On Target1

5Off Target3

4Blocked2

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

366Total Passes341

268Accurate Passes234

73%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1