Coventry 1–1 Rotherham: Result & Stats | League One

Coventry

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rotherham

M. Godden 47'

F. Ladapo 23'

2/25/2020

League One · Round 26St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry39%

×Draw30%

Rotherham31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.99

Coventry

1.14

Rotherham

0.99

Coventry creates 15% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 99 away

1.12

creates per match

1.15

0.83

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Coventry

1.12

Rotherham

1.15

allows per match

Coventry

0.83

Rotherham

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

69%

Coventry or Rotherham

70%

Draw or Rotherham

61%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

16%

Rotherham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

68%

Coventry 2+ goals

32%

Coventry 3+ goals

11%

Rotherham 1+ goals

63%

Rotherham 2+ goals

26%

Rotherham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

55%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Coventry scores more

39%

level

30%

Rotherham scores more

31%

Coventry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

F. Dabo

Coventry · M

8.0

Match Events

23'

25'

33'

47'

63'

H. Adelakun← B. Wiles

64'

A. Bakayoko← M. Biamou

73'

S. MacDonald← D. Barlaser

82'

Callum O'Hare

87'

Matt Crooks

88'

J. Lindsay← M. Crooks

89'

R. Giles← S. McCallum

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryRotherham

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots8

4Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots8

2On Target4

5Off Target2

1Blocked2

6Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

323Total Passes321

197Accurate Passes196

61%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

6Offsides2