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Coventry vs QPR — Championship 2018

Coventry
Coventry
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
QPR
QPR
J. Shipley 50'
A. Adomah 88'
A. Gray 6'
1/22/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 53+ matches

Coventry52%
×Draw26%
QPR22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.54
QPR
0.89

Coventry creates 73% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 59 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.82
QPR
0.78

allows per match

Coventry
0.99
QPR
1.26

finishing

Coventry+0.10scores more
QPR+0.08on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
78%
Coventry or QPR
74%
Draw or QPR
48%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
27%
QPR wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
79%
Coventry 2+ goals
45%
Coventry 3+ goals
20%
QPR 1+ goals
59%
QPR 2+ goals
22%
QPR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
71%
QPR (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.99 · 53 matches

QPR away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + QPR defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

QPR attack 0.78 + Coventry defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Coventry scores more
52%
level
26%
QPR scores more
22%

Coventry at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
C. WillockQPRQPR · F
8.2

Match Events

6'
A. Gray↳ C. Willock
50'
J. Shipley↳ T. Kane
66'
Robert Dickie
68'
L. Amos← A. Dozzell
75'
J. Bidwell← J. Shipley
76'
G. Thomas← A. Gray
79'
Callum O'Hare
80'
C. Austin← L. Dykes
88'
A. Adomah↳ C. Willock
89'
M. Waghorn← J. Allen
90+15'
Kyle McFadzean
90+7'
J. Jones← T. Kane

Possession

57%Coventry

Shots

21Coventry

Pass accuracy

53%Coventry

Statistics

CoventryQPR
Overview
57%Possession43%
21Total Shots8
13Corners2
12Fouls7
Shots
21Total Shots8
7On Target3
8Off Target5
6Blocked0
14Inside Box6
7Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
489Total Passes380
400Accurate Passes282
82%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Championship: Coventry 1–2 QPR

QPR beat Coventry 2-1 in Championship on January 22, 2022.

Goals: A. Gray (6'), J. Shipley (50'), A. Adomah (88').

Coventry controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.