Coventry 1–1 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Coventry

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Norwich

B. Gibson 88' (OG)

J. Rowe 40'

10/7/2023

Championship · Round 11The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Coventry51%

×Draw25%

Norwich25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.08

Coventry

1.65

Norwich

1.08

Coventry creates 53% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 61 away

1.82

creates per match

1.20

0.97

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Coventry

1.82

Norwich

1.20

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Norwich

1.48

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Coventry+0.09on par

Norwich+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

75%

Coventry or Norwich

75%

Draw or Norwich

49%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

27%

Norwich wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

81%

Coventry 2+ goals

49%

Coventry 3+ goals

23%

Norwich 1+ goals

66%

Norwich 2+ goals

29%

Norwich 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

67%

Norwich (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 54 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + Norwich defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.65

Norwich attack 1.20 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Coventry scores more

51%

level

25%

Norwich scores more

25%

Coventry at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Thomas

Coventry · D

7.9

Match Events

40'

J. Rowe↳ J. Stacey

63'

T. Springett← P. Płacheta

63'

D. Giannoulis← S. McCallum

72'

M. Godden← H. Wright

72'

J. Latibeaudiere← L. Kitching

72'

M. van Ewijk← J. Dasilva

74'

Jonathan Rowe

76'

L. Binks← J. Allen

76'

Hwang Ui-Jo← A. Idah

77'

C. Fassnacht← J. Rowe

87'

D. Batth← L. Gibbs

88'

B. GibsonOwn goal

90+1'

Yasin Ayari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryNorwich

Overview

57%Possession43%

21Total Shots6

1.91Expected Goals (xG)0.39

8Corners0

11Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots6

3On Target2

7Off Target2

11Blocked2

12Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

533Total Passes408

457Accurate Passes330

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1