Coventry 0–2 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Coventry

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Norwich

E. Buendía 45+1'

T. Pukki 28'

2/17/2021

Championship · Round 30St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Coventry51%

×Draw25%

Norwich25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.08

Coventry

1.65

Norwich

1.08

Coventry creates 53% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 61 away

1.82

creates per match

1.20

0.97

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Coventry

1.82

Norwich

1.20

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Norwich

1.48

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Coventry+0.09on par

Norwich+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

75%

Coventry or Norwich

75%

Draw or Norwich

49%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

27%

Norwich wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

81%

Coventry 2+ goals

49%

Coventry 3+ goals

23%

Norwich 1+ goals

66%

Norwich 2+ goals

29%

Norwich 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

67%

Norwich (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 54 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + Norwich defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.65

Norwich attack 1.20 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Coventry scores more

51%

level

25%

Norwich scores more

25%

Coventry at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Buendía

Norwich · M

8.7

Match Events

4'

17'

28'

45+1'

46'

46'

58'

64'

V. Gyökeres← T. Walker

69'

K. Dowell← M. Vrančić

70'

78'

84'

87'

88'

C. Zimmermann← E. Buendía

90+3'

A. Tettey← O. Skipp

90+3'

A. Idah← T. Pukki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryNorwich

Overview

35%Possession65%

10Total Shots12

4Corners5

20Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target5

3Off Target2

3Blocked5

5Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

324Total Passes605

223Accurate Passes498

69%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2