Coventry 1–0 Barnsley: Result & Stats | League One

Coventry

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barnsley

9/15/2018

League One · Round 8Ricoh Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Coventry37%

×Draw28%

Barnsley35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.18

Coventry

1.23

Barnsley

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 121 away

1.15

creates per match

1.57

0.79

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Coventry

1.15

Barnsley

1.57

allows per match

Coventry

0.79

Barnsley

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

65%

Coventry or Barnsley

72%

Draw or Barnsley

63%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

16%

Barnsley wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

71%

Coventry 2+ goals

35%

Coventry 3+ goals

13%

Barnsley 1+ goals

69%

Barnsley 2+ goals

33%

Barnsley 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

52%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.79 · 39 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.15 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Barnsley attack 1.57 + Coventry defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Coventry scores more

37%

level

28%

Barnsley scores more

35%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff