Cove Rangers 2–2 Kelty Hearts: Result & Stats

Cove Rangers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Kelty Hearts

M. Megginson 20'

R. Burrell 15'

A. Corbett 57'

A. Bavidge 47'

1/6/2024

League #183 · Round 20Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cove Rangers45%

×Draw26%

Kelty Hearts30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cove RangersExpected goals in this matchKelty Hearts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.18

Cove Rangers

1.50

Kelty Hearts

1.18

Cove Rangers creates 27% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

1.36

creates per match

1.22

1.14

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Cove Rangers

1.36

Kelty Hearts

1.22

allows per match

Cove Rangers

1.14

Kelty Hearts

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Kelty Hearts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw

70%

Cove Rangers or Kelty Hearts

74%

Draw or Kelty Hearts

55%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

22%

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

78%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

44%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

19%

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

69%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

33%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

60%

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Kelty Hearts away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.36 + Kelty Hearts defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kelty Hearts attack 1.22 + Cove Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cove Rangers scores more

45%

level

26%

Kelty Hearts scores more

30%

Cove Rangers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

R. Burrell↳ M. Reynolds

20'

M. Megginson↳ R. Burrell

47'

A. Bavidge↳ R. Cunningham

57'

A. Corbett↳ L. O'Donnell

63'

R. McAllister← R. Cunningham

68'

A. Darge← J. Jones

68'

K. Connell← P. McGowan

78'

S. Williamson← M. Megginson

78'

B. Biabi← M. Tidser

82'

A. Darge

86'

T. Daramola← C. Johnston

Cove

Kelty

1

Gourlay

2

⚽

Corbett

12

▼

8

15

17

19

⚽

Bavidge

16

A

O'Donnell

11

McCluskey

9

▼

Johnston

10

A

▼

Cunningha

1

Suman

26

A

Reynolds

3

Doyle

17

Kerr

2

▼

Jones

7

▼

8

4

5

9

⚽

▼

Megginson

10

⚽A

Burrell

Manager: P. Hartley

68'▲A. Darge←▼J. Jones

68'▲K. Connell←▼P. McGowan

78'▲S. Williamson←▼M. Megginson

Cove Rangers substitutes

15Darge11Connell29Williamson23Robertson27Stewart22Gallagher6Gillingham

63'▲R. McAllister←▼R. Cunningham

78'▲B. Biabi←▼M. Tidser

86'▲T. Daramola←▼C. Johnston

Kelty Hearts substitutes

18McAllister14Biabi7Daramola24Sylla21Cameron20Campbell