Cove Rangers 3–1 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Cove Rangers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Inverness CT

7/20/2021

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cove Rangers49%

×Draw22%

Inverness CT30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cove RangersExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.53

Cove Rangers

2.00

Inverness CT

1.53

Cove Rangers creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

1.13

1.93

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Cove Rangers

1.67

Inverness CT

1.13

allows per match

Cove Rangers

1.93

Inverness CT

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Inverness CT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw

70%

Cove Rangers or Inverness CT

78%

Draw or Inverness CT

51%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

28%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

86%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

59%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

32%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

78%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

45%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

62%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.67 + Inverness CT defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Inverness CT attack 1.13 + Cove Rangers defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cove Rangers scores more

49%

level

22%

Inverness CT scores more

30%

Cove Rangers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff