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Covadonga vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Covadonga
Covadonga
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Tuilla
Tuilla
10/6/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Covadonga55%
×Draw24%
Tuilla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Covadonga
1.72
Tuilla
0.97

Covadonga creates 77% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 110 away

creates per match

Covadonga
1.99
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

Covadonga
0.78
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw
79%
Covadonga or Tuilla
76%
Draw or Tuilla
45%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+
30%
Tuilla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals
82%
Covadonga 2+ goals
51%
Covadonga 3+ goals
25%
Tuilla 1+ goals
62%
Tuilla 2+ goals
25%
Tuilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)
72%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.78 · 85 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.99 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Covadonga defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Covadonga scores more
55%
level
24%
Tuilla scores more
21%

Covadonga at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Covadonga 1–3 Tuilla

Tuilla beat Covadonga 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal in Oviedo.