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Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Covadonga
Covadonga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Covadonga44%
×Draw27%
Sporting Gijón II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Covadonga
1.39
Sporting Gijón II
1.09

Covadonga creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

creates per match

Covadonga
1.99
Sporting Gijón II
1.41

allows per match

Covadonga
0.78
Sporting Gijón II
0.78

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw
71%
Covadonga or Sporting Gijón II
73%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
56%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+
21%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals
75%
Covadonga 2+ goals
40%
Covadonga 3+ goals
16%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
66%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
30%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)
60%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.78 · 85 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.99 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Covadonga defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Covadonga scores more
44%
level
27%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
29%

Covadonga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Covadonga 1–0 Sporting Gijón II

Covadonga beat Sporting Gijón II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal in Oviedo.