Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cotonsport vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

Cotonsport
Cotonsport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
1/4/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 11Stade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cotonsport53%
×Draw27%
Stade Renard20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cotonsport
1.44
Stade Renard
0.77

Cotonsport creates 87% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 96 away

creates per match

Cotonsport
1.80
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

Cotonsport
0.65
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw
80%
Cotonsport or Stade Renard
73%
Draw or Stade Renard
47%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+
27%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals
76%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
42%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
18%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
54%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
18%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)
73%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cotonsport scores more
53%
level
27%
Stade Renard scores more
20%

Cotonsport at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Cotonsport 1–1 Stade Renard

Cotonsport and Stade Renard drew 1-1 in Elite One on January 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia in Garoua.