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Cotonsport vs PWD Bamenda — Elite One 2019

Cotonsport
Cotonsport
FT
3 – 0
PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
3/5/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 7Complexe Sportif de Coton Sport (Garoua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cotonsport53%
×Draw26%
PWD Bamenda21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cotonsport
1.49
PWD Bamenda
0.83

Cotonsport creates 80% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 99 away

creates per match

Cotonsport
1.80
PWD Bamenda
1.01

allows per match

Cotonsport
0.65
PWD Bamenda
1.18

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par
PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

PWD Bamenda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw
79%
Cotonsport or PWD Bamenda
74%
Draw or PWD Bamenda
47%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+
27%
PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals
77%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
44%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
19%
PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
56%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
20%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)
72%
PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.49

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cotonsport scores more
53%
level
26%
PWD Bamenda scores more
21%

Cotonsport at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cotonsport vs PWD Bamenda

Cotonsport beat PWD Bamenda 3-0 in Elite One on March 5, 2019.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Coton Sport (Garoua).