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Cotonsport vs Panthère — Elite One 2019

Cotonsport
Cotonsport
FT
0 – 2
Panthère
Panthère
2/7/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 20Complexe Sportif de Coton Sport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cotonsport54%
×Draw27%
Panthère19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cotonsport
1.43
Panthère
0.74

Cotonsport creates 93% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 64 away

creates per match

Cotonsport
1.80
Panthère
0.84

allows per match

Cotonsport
0.65
Panthère
1.05

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par
Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Panthère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw
81%
Cotonsport or Panthère
73%
Draw or Panthère
46%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+
27%
Panthère wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals
76%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
42%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
17%
Panthère 1+ goals
52%
Panthère 2+ goals
17%
Panthère 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)
73%
Panthère (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Panthère away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Panthère defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.43

Panthère attack 0.84 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cotonsport scores more
54%
level
27%
Panthère scores more
19%

Cotonsport at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Cotonsport 0–2 Panthère

Panthère beat Cotonsport 2-0 in Elite One on February 7, 2020.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Coton Sport in Garoua.