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Cotonsport vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

Cotonsport
Cotonsport
FT
2 – 1
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
3/25/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 10Complexe Sportif de Coton Sport (Garoua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Cotonsport56%
×Draw26%
Avion Academy18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cotonsport
1.52
Avion Academy
0.73

Cotonsport creates 108% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 67 away

creates per match

Cotonsport
1.80
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

Cotonsport
0.65
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw
82%
Cotonsport or Avion Academy
74%
Draw or Avion Academy
44%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+
29%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals
78%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
45%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
20%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
52%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
17%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)
76%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cotonsport scores more
56%
level
26%
Avion Academy scores more
18%

Cotonsport at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cotonsport 2 – 1 Avion Academy

Cotonsport beat Avion Academy 2-1 in Elite One on March 25, 2019.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Coton Sport (Garoua).