Costa del Este 2–1 Veraguas: Result & Stats

Costa del Este

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Veraguas

4/4/2021

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 9Nuevo Estadio Maracaná de Panamá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Costa del Este44%

×Draw26%

Veraguas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Costa del EsteExpected goals in this matchVeraguas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.11

Costa del Este

1.42

Veraguas

1.11

Costa del Este creates 28% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 77 away

1.23

creates per match

1.08

1.15

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Costa del Este

1.23

Veraguas

1.08

allows per match

Costa del Este

1.15

Veraguas

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Costa del Este+0.00on par

Veraguas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa del Este ↓

Veraguas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Costa del Este or draw

71%

Costa del Este or Veraguas

74%

Draw or Veraguas

56%

Winning margin

Costa del Este wins by 2+

21%

Veraguas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Costa del Este 1+ goals

76%

Costa del Este 2+ goals

41%

Costa del Este 3+ goals

17%

Veraguas 1+ goals

67%

Veraguas 2+ goals

30%

Veraguas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Costa del Este (draw refunded)

60%

Veraguas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa del Este at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 114 matches

Veraguas away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa del Este attack 1.23 + Veraguas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Veraguas attack 1.08 + Costa del Este defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Costa del Este scores more

44%

level

26%

Veraguas scores more

29%

Costa del Este at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Costa del Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff