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Costa del Este vs Sporting San Miguelito — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Costa del Este
Costa del Este
FT
2 – 1
Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito
10/27/2018Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 16Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez (Ciudad de Panamá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Costa del Este37%
×Draw30%
Sporting San Miguelito33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Costa del Este
1.11
Sporting San Miguelito
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 132 away

creates per match

Costa del Este
1.23
Sporting San Miguelito
0.94

allows per match

Costa del Este
1.15
Sporting San Miguelito
0.99

finishing

Costa del Este+0.00on par
Sporting San Miguelito+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa del Este ↓

Sporting San Miguelito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Costa del Este or draw
67%
Costa del Este or Sporting San Miguelito
70%
Draw or Sporting San Miguelito
63%

Winning margin

Costa del Este wins by 2+
15%
Sporting San Miguelito wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Costa del Este 1+ goals
67%
Costa del Este 2+ goals
30%
Costa del Este 3+ goals
10%
Sporting San Miguelito 1+ goals
65%
Sporting San Miguelito 2+ goals
28%
Sporting San Miguelito 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Costa del Este (draw refunded)
53%
Sporting San Miguelito (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa del Este at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 114 matches

Sporting San Miguelito away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.99 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa del Este attack 1.23 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sporting San Miguelito attack 0.94 + Costa del Este defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Costa del Este scores more
37%
level
30%
Sporting San Miguelito scores more
33%

Costa del Este at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Costa del Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Costa del Este vs Sporting San Miguelito

Costa del Este beat Sporting San Miguelito 2-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez (Ciudad de Panamá).