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Costa del Este vs Plaza Amador — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Costa del Este
Costa del Este
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador
10/14/2018Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 13Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez (Ciudad de Panamá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Costa del Este33%
×Draw28%
Plaza Amador39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Costa del Este
1.09
Plaza Amador
1.21

Plaza Amador creates 11% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 137 away

creates per match

Costa del Este
1.23
Plaza Amador
1.27

allows per match

Costa del Este
1.15
Plaza Amador
0.95

finishing

Costa del Este+0.00on par
Plaza Amador+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa del Este ↓

Plaza Amador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Costa del Este or draw
61%
Costa del Este or Plaza Amador
72%
Draw or Plaza Amador
67%

Winning margin

Costa del Este wins by 2+
13%
Plaza Amador wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Costa del Este 1+ goals
66%
Costa del Este 2+ goals
30%
Costa del Este 3+ goals
10%
Plaza Amador 1+ goals
70%
Plaza Amador 2+ goals
34%
Plaza Amador 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Costa del Este (draw refunded)
46%
Plaza Amador (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa del Este at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 114 matches

Plaza Amador away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa del Este attack 1.23 + Plaza Amador defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Plaza Amador attack 1.27 + Costa del Este defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Costa del Este scores more
33%
level
28%
Plaza Amador scores more
39%

Plaza Amador at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Costa del Este vs Plaza Amador

Costa del Este beat Plaza Amador 1-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez (Ciudad de Panamá).