Cosmos 1–2 San Giovanni: Result & Stats

Cosmos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

San Giovanni

11/23/2024

League #404 · Round 10Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Cosmos48%

×Draw23%

San Giovanni29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CosmosExpected goals in this matchSan Giovanni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.32

Cosmos

1.77

San Giovanni

1.32

Cosmos creates 34% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 50 away

2.02

creates per match

1.22

1.43

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cosmos

2.02

San Giovanni

1.22

allows per match

Cosmos

1.43

San Giovanni

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cosmos+0.00on par

San Giovanni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmos ↓

San Giovanni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cosmos or draw

71%

Cosmos or San Giovanni

77%

Draw or San Giovanni

52%

Winning margin

Cosmos wins by 2+

26%

San Giovanni wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cosmos 1+ goals

83%

Cosmos 2+ goals

53%

Cosmos 3+ goals

26%

San Giovanni 1+ goals

73%

San Giovanni 2+ goals

38%

San Giovanni 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cosmos (draw refunded)

63%

San Giovanni (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmos at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.43 · 40 matches

San Giovanni away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.52 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmos attack 2.02 + San Giovanni defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.77

San Giovanni attack 1.22 + Cosmos defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cosmos scores more

48%

level

23%

San Giovanni scores more

29%

Cosmos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cosmos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff