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Cosmos vs San Giovanni — League #404 2026

Cosmos
Cosmos
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
San Giovanni
San Giovanni
12/10/2016League #404League #404 · Round 12Stadio Serravalle B (Serravalle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Cosmos49%
×Draw23%
San Giovanni28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosmos
1.81
San Giovanni
1.32

Cosmos creates 37% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 59 away

creates per match

Cosmos
2.02
San Giovanni
1.22

allows per match

Cosmos
1.43
San Giovanni
1.59

finishing

Cosmos+0.00on par
San Giovanni+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmos ↓

San Giovanni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cosmos or draw
72%
Cosmos or San Giovanni
77%
Draw or San Giovanni
51%

Winning margin

Cosmos wins by 2+
27%
San Giovanni wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cosmos 1+ goals
84%
Cosmos 2+ goals
54%
Cosmos 3+ goals
27%
San Giovanni 1+ goals
73%
San Giovanni 2+ goals
38%
San Giovanni 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cosmos (draw refunded)
64%
San Giovanni (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmos at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.43 · 40 matches

San Giovanni away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.59 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmos attack 2.02 + San Giovanni defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

San Giovanni attack 1.22 + Cosmos defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cosmos scores more
49%
level
23%
San Giovanni scores more
28%

Cosmos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cosmos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cosmos vs San Giovanni

Cosmos beat San Giovanni 5-1 in League #404 on December 10, 2016.

The match was played at Stadio Serravalle B (Serravalle).