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Cosenza vs Perugia — Serie B 2018

Cosenza
Cosenza
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Perugia
Perugia
9/30/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 6San Vito-Gigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Cosenza38%
×Draw29%
Perugia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosenza
1.19
Perugia
1.08

Cosenza creates 10% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 77 away

creates per match

Cosenza
1.06
Perugia
1.09

allows per match

Cosenza
1.07
Perugia
1.32

finishing

Cosenza+0.00on par
Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosenza ↓

Perugia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cosenza or draw
67%
Cosenza or Perugia
71%
Draw or Perugia
62%

Winning margin

Cosenza wins by 2+
16%
Perugia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cosenza 1+ goals
70%
Cosenza 2+ goals
33%
Cosenza 3+ goals
12%
Perugia 1+ goals
66%
Perugia 2+ goals
29%
Perugia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cosenza (draw refunded)
54%
Perugia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosenza attack 1.06 + Perugia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Perugia attack 1.09 + Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cosenza scores more
38%
level
29%
Perugia scores more
33%

Cosenza at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cosenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cosenza vs Perugia

Cosenza and Perugia drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at San Vito-Gigi Marulla in Cosenza.