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Cosenza vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Cosenza
Cosenza
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Brescia
Brescia
3/9/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 28San Vito-Gigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Cosenza37%
×Draw28%
Brescia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosenza
1.17
Brescia
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 116 away

creates per match

Cosenza
1.06
Brescia
1.18

allows per match

Cosenza
1.07
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Cosenza+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosenza ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cosenza or draw
65%
Cosenza or Brescia
72%
Draw or Brescia
63%

Winning margin

Cosenza wins by 2+
15%
Brescia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cosenza 1+ goals
69%
Cosenza 2+ goals
33%
Cosenza 3+ goals
11%
Brescia 1+ goals
68%
Brescia 2+ goals
31%
Brescia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cosenza (draw refunded)
51%
Brescia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.28 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosenza attack 1.06 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Brescia attack 1.18 + Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cosenza scores more
37%
level
28%
Brescia scores more
35%

Cosenza at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cosenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cosenza vs Brescia

Brescia beat Cosenza 3-2 in Serie B on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at San Vito-Gigi Marulla in Cosenza.